Thailand ranks as one of the top 10 high-risk countries under Trump's second administration

The Innovation and Technology Information Foundation (ITIF) released the “Trump Risk Index” evaluating risks faced by US-allied countries under Donald Trump’s presidency.

Key Points

Thailand faces the second-highest risk under Trump’s presidency due to its trade surplus with the US and below-average defense spending.
Mexico, Slovenia, Austria, and Canada also rank high in risk due to similar factors and hesitancy to fully align with the US against China.
Countries perceived as not firmly supporting the US under Trump’s “America First” policy face increased scrutiny, while Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Latvia, and Australia are among the lowest-risk countries in the index.

Thailand emerged as the second nation facing the highest risk due to its significant trade surplus with the US and below-average defense spending. Mexico, Slovenia, Austria, and Canada also ranked high due to similar reasons. These countries are hesitant to fully align with the US against China.

Thailand stands out as the sole Asian country in the top 10, while other US allies in Asia are positioned lower, including the Philippines at 17th, Japan at 25th, South Korea at 22nd, and Taiwan at 31st.

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Thailand’s risk score is driven by its trade surplus and defense spending, making it the only Asian country in the top 10. Under Trump’s “America First” policy, countries perceived as not firmly supporting the US face increased scrutiny. In contrast, the lowest-risk countries are Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Latvia, and Australia.

Thailand’s position in the top 10 highlights its unique standing in Asia, bolstered by a strong trade surplus and consistent defense investments. However, under the “America First” doctrine, nations that do not align closely with U.S. interests may encounter heightened diplomatic or economic challenges. This dynamic underscores the growing importance of geopolitical alignment in shaping global risk assessments.