Thailand’s GDP growth picked up to 4.5% y/y in Q3

Thailand’s gross domestic product jumped to a year-on-year 4.5% expansion for the third quarter thanks to higher than expected tourism revenues.

Thailand has received 7.6 million foreign visitors so far this year, and the country anticipates up to 18 million visitors in the following year, according to the Tourism Authority of Thailand.

These figures are still a fraction of the 39 million international arrivals in 2019, but they are a significant improvement over the 427,000 who visited Thailand in 2021.

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Robust Q3 GDP bolsters our view that Thailand will buck the trend of Asia’s growth slowdown in 2023. We think the economy should benefit from an easing of both supply and demand side pressures: lower oil prices and increased tourism. An improvement in the current account and disinflation should also provide greater flexibility for monetary policy.

Sung Eun Jung, Senior Economist, Oxford Economics

Thailand’s economy experienced a positive spillover from the tourism industry in the third quarter, significantly boosting private consumption. In the third quarter, that metric increased by 9%, up from 7.1% in the preceding three months.