SCB EIC Raises 2024 Exports Forecast but Lowers 2025 Projections Amid Trump 2.0

In October 2024, Thai exports surged by 14.6% to USD 27.22 billion, driven by gold and electronics, while imports increased 15.9%, resulting in a trade deficit of USD 794.3 million.

Robust Export Growth in October 2024

In October 2024, Thai exports saw a remarkable growth of 14.6% YoY, reaching USD 27,222.1 million, significantly surpassing analysts’ estimates. This growth comes as a stark contrast to the previous month’s 1.1% increase and was primarily fueled by a substantial 169.3% surge in gold exports and a cyclical upswing in the electronics sector. Excluding gold, exports still maintained a robust 9% growth, bringing the cumulative value for the first ten months of 2024 to USD 250,398 million, reflecting an overall growth of 4.9% YoY.

Industrial and Agro-Industrial Goods Lead the Charge

Export categories revealed notable trends, particularly in industrial goods, which jumped 18.6%, led by unwrought gold and electronic products. Agro-industrial products also showed a steady expansion of 7.6%. However, mining and fuel products contracted, with refined oil exports significantly declining due to lower global oil prices. The favorable export conditions were due to the low base effect from the previous year’s figures, creating a positive environment for growth.

Market Dynamics and Future Forecasts

Export performance varied across key markets. The U.S. and European Union markets experienced strong growth, with 25.3% and 27.3% increases, respectively. Meanwhile, the Indian market rebounded impressively, while Japan returned to growth after nine months. Nonetheless, the trade balance shifted to a deficit as imports rose by 15.9%. Looking ahead, SCB EIC adjusted the 2024 export growth forecast to 3.9% but reduced the 2025 projection due to anticipated geopolitical tensions and potential tariff increases impacting global trade dynamics.

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