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Thai Exports Continued to Grow in September Raising Prospects for an Upward Revision in 2024
Despite the cooling trends in exports, SCB EIC anticipates growth to surpass initial estimates of 2.6% for the year, propelled by rising gold exports and strong electronic sales.
In September 2024, Thai exports grew 1.1% YOY, slowing from 7% growth. Total exports reached USD 223,176 million for the year, with challenges from global trends and market fluctuations ahead.
Exports Show Cooling Trends in September 2024
In September 2024, Thailand’s exports totaled USD 25,983.2 million, reflecting a modest year-over-year growth of 1.1%. This growth slowed from the previous month’s 7% and fell short of analysts’ expectations of 2.9%. Notably, the total export value for the first three quarters of the year reached USD 223,176 million, indicating a 3.9% growth on a customs basis. The decline in growth can be attributed to factors such as a slowdown in computer exports and the first year-on-year decline in gold exports in five months, influenced by a high base effect from last year.
Major Export Categories Experience Slowdown
Three out of four export categories displayed slower growth in September. Agro-industrial products decelerated to 7.8%, down from 17.1%, driven by strong growth in canned seafood and pet food, although sugar exports contracted. Industrial product growth eased to 2%, primarily affected by declines in automobiles and semiconductors. Agricultural product growth slowed significantly to just 0.2%, hindered by contractions in fresh fruit and cassava products, while mining and fuel products saw a steep decline of 24.9%, mainly due to falling refined oil exports.
Growth Expected Amid Various Challenges
Despite the cooling trends in exports, SCB EIC anticipates growth to surpass initial estimates of 2.6% for the year, propelled by rising gold exports and strong electronic sales. However, several risks loom, including a potential global economic slowdown and increased competition from Chinese goods. Additionally, the lifting of India’s rice export ban could impact Thai rice exports, and fluctuations in the Thai baht might affect price competitiveness. SCB EIC plans to reassess Thailand’s export outlook for 2024 and 2025 in November.
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