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SCB EIC anticipates a 2.6% increase in Thai exports for 2024
SCB EIC forecasts a 2.6% increase in Thai exports for 2024 based on current global economic trends, world manufacturing conditions, and expected export prices that are higher than previous estimates.
Thai exports in June 2024 experienced a 0.3% year-on-year decline, primarily due to a notable decrease in fruit exports to China, although there was a substantial increase in gold exports. Despite the decline in exports, Thailand recorded a trade surplus.
In June 2024, Thailand’s exports fell to USD 24,796.6 million, marking a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year. This decrease was driven by a significant drop in fruit exports to China, impacted by drought conditions. While gold exports surged by 184.1%, the overall export trend remained down, with a seasonally adjusted month-over-month decline of 0.4%. For the first half of 2024, exports totaled USD 145,290 million, reflecting a modest 2% increase year-on-year.
Exports in agro-industrial and agricultural sectors particularly struggled, with fruit exports plummeting by 40.2% to China. Conversely, some sectors like rice and rubber showed positive growth. Manufacturing exports only grew by 0.3%, while mining and fuel product exports faced stagnation.
However, Thailand recorded a slight trade surplus in June, with imports rising to USD 24,578.5 million. Looking ahead, SCB EIC anticipates improved export performance for July and the latter half of 2024 due to easing comparison factors and positive global economic indicators. Predictions suggest overall export growth of 2.6% for 2024, contingent on global economic developments and challenges in adapting to market demands.
SCB EIC anticipates that Thai exports will improve in July and the second half of the year
SCB EIC expects a return to growth in July, driven by the low base effect from July 2023, when exports plunged by -10.3% due to gloomy global economic conditions at the time and a significant decline in gold exports by -53.7%.
Moreover, global economic and manufacturing indicators suggest a recovery in Thai exports, as reflected by the global Purchasing Manager’s Index, which remained above 50 (Figure 4), despite the indicator dropping below 50 in developed economies in the latest month (Figure 5). With such regards, SCB EIC projects a 2.6% expansion in Thai exports for 2024 (balance of payments basis and outlook as of June 2024), based on current global economic trends, world manufacturing conditions, and with export prices that should surpass prior estimates.
Looking ahead to 2025, Thai exports are expected to grow at a similar rate to 2024, following global economic conditions that should grow at a similar rate to this year and higher trade volume compared to 2024 from higher demand for manufacturing products. However, several factors could constrain growth, including structural issues within Thailand’s export sector, which struggles to fully adapt to changing global market demands, and increasing use of protectionism trade barriers by major trading partners following election playouts in various key economies, especially the US and EU. Additionally, China’s overcapacity remains a concern that must be monitored, as it makes it more difficult for Thai products to compete on price with Chinese products in the global market. SCB EIC is currently revising the Thai export forecasts for 2024 and 2025, with the update expected to be published in late August.
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