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Thai export recovery has stalled, yet growth in 2024 is expected to remain positive
SCB EIC forecasts a 3.1% export growth for 2024, lower than previous estimates, citing challenges in adapting to changing global demand patterns.
Import values increased, mainly from China and Europe, leading to a trade deficit. In March, exports are expected to decline due to the high base effect, but exports related to military drills may offset this decline. SCB EIC forecasts a 3.1% export growth for 2024, lower than previous estimates, citing challenges in adapting to changing global demand patterns.
The signal of Thai export recovery has slowed in the short term as the value of Thai exports in February 2024 only increased by 3.6%YOY compared to the previous year. This growth rate is considerably lower than the 10% growth seen in the prior month. Exports of agricultural and manufacturing products stalled, while agro-industrial, mining, and fuel products experienced contraction, indicating signs of a slowing short-term recovery.
Exports to key destinations showed uneven growth, with exports to the US and Switzerland experiencing robust expansions, while exports to China, Japan, and the Middle East contracted. The trade deficit persisted as imports of capital and consumer goods increased, mainly from Europe and China.
SCB EIC anticipates a decline in merchandise exports in March 2024 due to the high base effect from the previous year. Despite recovery in global manufacturing conditions, exports may contract, with exports of weaponry for overseas military drills potentially mitigating the decline. SCB EIC expects export growth to improve in 2024, driven by improving global trade volume and manufacturing sector conditions, although the forecast has been revised down to 3.1% due to external factors affecting global trade.
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