UTTC lowers Thailand’s 2024 growth forecast to 2.6%

The economic growth forecast for Thailand in 2024 has been reduced to 2.6% from the earlier projection of 3.2% due to factors such as fragile economic recovery, slowdown in private investment, weak consumer purchasing power, and delayed budget disbursement.

Key Takeaways

• Thailand’s economic growth forecast for 2024 has been revised down to 2.6% due to factors such as a fragile economic recovery, slow private investment, and weak consumer purchasing power.
• The first quarter is projected to see only 2% economic expansion, with growth expected to pick up to 2.5% in the second quarter, driven by national budget disbursement, tourism, and exports.
• Despite the possibility of an overall 3% growth for the year, concerns remain about low consumer confidence, high household debt, and the impact of non-performing loans on lending.

The economic growth forecast for Thailand in 2024 has been revised downward to 2.6% from the previously projected 3.2%. This adjustment is attributed to several factors including a fragile economic recovery, a slowdown in private investment, weakened consumer purchasing power, and delayed budget disbursement. These combined issues have led to a less optimistic outlook for Thailand’s economic performance in the coming year.

The first quarter is projected to see a 2% expansion, with only tourism and exports showing continuous growth. The second quarter is expected to improve to 2.5%, mainly due to budget disbursement, tourism, and exports. Consumer confidence remains low due to the lingering impact of the COVID pandemic and higher interest rates.

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The third quarter is anticipated to show a 3.1% growth, with expected declines in lending rates. However, the 4th quarter growth is forecast at 2.8% due to high household debt leading to an increase in non-performing loans. If the national budget disbursement accelerates and the “digital wallet” scheme is approved quickly, there is a possibility of the year’s growth increasing to 3%.