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SCB EIC expects steady policy rate at 2.5% throughout the year
The MPC anticipates a slowdown in the Thai economy in 2024 as a result of softening global demand and moderating growth in China. This has led to challenges in merchandise exports and tourism.
The MPC voted 5-2 to maintain the policy rate at 2.50% as the Thai economy is projected to slow in 2024, attributed to reduced exports and manufacturing activity. Inflation is low, but there are expectations for gradual growth, while the financial system demonstrates resilience.
The MPC voted 5 to 2 to keep the policy rate at 2.50 percent, with two members in favor of reducing the rate by 0.25 percentage point. The MPC anticipates a slowdown in the Thai economy in 2024 as a result of softening global demand and moderating growth in China.
The slower initial momentum suggests a gentler outlook for 2024 growth, expected to be between 2.5-3 percent. Private consumption and tourism will continue to drive growth, while exports and manufacturing activity will grow moderately due to global demand constraints and a delayed upturn in the Thai electronic cycle. In the future, structural obstacles, especially declining competitiveness, could increasingly hinder growth without structural reforms.
This has led to challenges in merchandise exports and tourism. However, domestic demand remains strong and continues to be a key driver of the economy. Inflation is expected to gradually increase towards the target range, albeit at a slower pace than expected.
Supply factors, such as lower raw food and energy prices, as well as government subsidies, are expected to result in lower headline inflation. The MPC also notes that the overall financial system remains resilient, with stable overall financial conditions. While businesses and households continue to access new funding, small businesses in certain industries may face tighter credit conditions and more stringent credit standards.
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