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ADB lowers its economic growth forecast for Thailand in 2023 from 3.5% to 2.5%
Growth forecasts for Southeast Asia are revised down to 4.3% for 2023 and 4.7% for 2024, mainly on weak external demand.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised down its forecast for the Thai economy in 2023 due to the global economic slowdown from 3.5% to 2.5%.
However, the regional economy is expected to grow 4.9% this year, compared with a previous forecast of 4.7% in September, according to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) December 2023, released today. The outlook for next year is maintained at 4.8%.
Key Takeaways
- Developing Asia’s growth forecast for 2023 has been revised up to 4.9%, driven by robust domestic demand, indicating a positive outlook despite global challenges.
- Inflation in the region is expected to decline to 3.5% in 2023, but potential supply disruptions and higher price pressures in certain countries may slightly increase inflation to 3.6% in 2024.
- Southeast Asia’s growth forecasts have been revised down for 2023 due to weak external demand, while South Asia’s growth projection is revised up for 2023 driven by stronger-than-expected growth in India.
- The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised down its forecast for the Thai economy in 2023 due to the global economic slowdown from 3.5% to 2.5%.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has also revised its forecast for the Thai economy for next year, lowering it from 3.7% to 3.3% due to the impact of the global economic slowdown. This adjustment reflects the challenges posed by the current global economic conditions on Thailand’s economic growth.
However, it raised its forecast for developing economies in Asia and the Pacific region as a whole, citing strong domestic demand in China and India. The ADB predicts that inflation in the region will decline this year before rising slightly in 2024. The main downside risks are higher interest rates in advanced economies and possible supply disruptions.
“Developing Asia continues to grow at a robust pace, despite a challenging global environment. Inflation in the region is also gradually coming under control. Still, risks remain, from elevated global interest rates to climate events such as El Niño”
ADB Chief Economist Albert Park
The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) for December 2023 reveals that the outlook for developing Asia remains positive, with a growth forecast of 4.9% for 2023 and 4.8% for 2024. Inflation in the region is expected to decrease to 3.5% in 2023 and slightly rise to 3.6% in 2024.
There are some downside risks, including higher interest rates in advanced economies and potential supply disruptions from El Niño and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The outlook for different regions within Asia varies, with the Caucasus and Central Asia, East Asia, and South Asia experiencing improvements in growth forecasts, while Southeast Asia sees a downward revision.
Inflation forecasts also vary across regions, with some upward revisions in the Caucasus and Central Asia, and downward adjustments in East Asia. The Pacific region maintains its growth projections.
- The Caucasus and Central Asia’s 2023 outlook has improved, with growth now forecast at 4.8% primarily on expectations of faster growth in Kazakhstan. The 2024 forecast is revised down slightly to 4.6%.
- Growth forecasts for Southeast Asia are revised down to 4.3% for 2023 and 4.7% for 2024, mainly on weak external demand.
- East Asia’s growth forecast for 2023 is revised up to 4.7% on a higher-than-expected third quarter growth in the People’s Republic of China. The forecast for 2024 is maintained at 4.2%.
- South Asia’s projection is revised up to 5.7% for 2023, driven by stronger-than-expected growth in India, and is unchanged at 6.0% for 2024.
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