Bank of Thailand raises key interest rate to highest level in nine years

The Bank of Thailand has raised its key interest rate to a nine-year high of 2.25% due to concerns about rising prices.

Key Takeaways

• The Bank of Thailand raised its key interest rate to 2.25%, citing concerns about upside risks to prices and the need to ensure inflation stays low in the long term.
• Despite easing inflation and a forecasted steady economic expansion driven by tourism and private consumption, policymakers remain cautious due to weak exports, domestic political uncertainty, and the potential impact of a severe El Nino episode on food prices.
• The central bank expects inflation to rebound in the second half of the year after temporary factors dissipate, but analysts believe this rate hike will likely be the last for now, considering the downside risks to growth and subdued inflation.

Despite inflation easing and falling below the central bank’s target, policymakers aim to ensure it remains low. The central bank expects the economy to continue growing, driven by tourism and private consumption, but warns of risks from weak exports and political uncertainty.

They anticipate a rebound in inflation in the second half of the year and believe this rate hike will be the last for now. The extended wait for a new government is causing concern among industry groups and could delay investments and trade agreements.

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Currently, inflation is projected to stabilize within the target range. However, it is important to note that there are always potential risks and uncertainties associated with inflation.

There is a concern that inflation may occur as a result of the recent increase in food prices. This is due to the potential negative impact that a severe El Nino episode could have on agricultural production, which could result in supply shortages. Such supply shortages could lead to an increase in the cost of food, which in turn could drive up inflation.

The overall financial system remains resilient, but some SMEs and households may face deteriorating credit quality. Financial conditions have become less accommodating, but still support the ongoing economic recovery.

The baht’s value is influenced by US monetary policy expectations, the Chinese economic outlook, and domestic political uncertainties. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and inflation outlooks in deciding on future policy rate increases.

The central bank closely monitors these developments and takes them into consideration when making decisions on future policy rate increases. It is crucial for policymakers to strike a balance between supporting economic growth and managing inflation to ensure stability and sustainable development.