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Central bank Independence Matters
Last month, the Bank of Thailand decided not to adjust the rate despite consecutive months of negative inflation and sluggish GDP growth figures released by the NESDC. An IMF report shows that central bank independence is crucial for maintaining price stability and fostering long-term economic growth.
Central bankers today are facing challenges to their independence as calls for premature interest-rate cuts are growing: there is a rising risk of political interference in banks’ decision making and personnel appointments. It is important for governments and central bankers to resist these pressures.
- Central bank independence is crucial for maintaining price stability and fostering long-term economic growth.
- Strong governance, transparency, and accountability are essential for central banks to earn and maintain public trust.
- Collaboration between central banks, governments, and the people is necessary to preserve and strengthen central bank independence and ensure economic stability.
Last month, the Bank of Thailand decided not to adjust the rate despite consecutive months of negative inflation and sluggish GDP growth figures released by the NESDC. This decision was made during the MPC meeting on February 7, despite the government’s urging for rate cuts to alleviate economic pressures.
Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin called for a cut in interest rates, citing public hardship, as the current rate of 2.50% is the highest in a decade, but BOT Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput did not follow course and explained that lowering the interest rate would not directly address the primary causes of slow GDP growth and negative headline inflation.
The Bank of Thailand emphasized the need for targeted measures instead of broad financial support to tackle problems like stagnant incomes and high household debt, which he linked to prolonged periods of low-interest rates.
Furthermore, a clash between the government and the Bank of Thailand (BOT) would harm the economy and erode confidence in the prime minister, cautioned the head of the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI).
The head of the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) warned that a confrontation between the government and the Bank of Thailand (BOT) could harm the economy and erode confidence in the prime minister. He highlighted the negative impact of similar clashes in Turkey and the UK.
The TDRI president also criticized the government’s proposed digital wallet policy, cautioning that it must be carefully planned to avoid increasing public debt and harming credit ratings. Additionally, there are rumors that the chairman of the Stock Exchange of Thailand may become the next finance minister in a potential Cabinet reshuffle to resolve the confrontations with the BOT.
An IMF study from 2007 to 2021 found that central banks with strong independence scores were more successful in controlling people’s inflation expectations, leading to lower inflation. Independence has become increasingly important for central banks across all income levels.
Central bank independence is important for price stability, which in turn is important for long-term growth. To maintain trust in democratic societies, central banks must demonstrate strong governance, transparency, and accountability.
This includes having a clear legislative mandate for price stability, ensuring that monetary policy is based on long-term goals rather than short-term political gains. Independence also means that central bankers should have control over their budgets and personnel, and not be easily dismissed based on their policy views or actions within their legal mandate.
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